The easiest predictions are those that already show clear signs of forming and gaining momentum. I can rather comfortably state that Facebook is the new Google. A few thoughts:
Facebook is growing tremendously fast…check out the statistics – 3% per week growth, 50% of users return to the site daily, etc.
Facebook as platform confirms the ability of facebook to reach beyond their own programmers and users…and create a space of innovation and collaboration with other providers: “Following the crack cocaine model, i.e. give it away for free then charge once users are addicted, businesses that achieve profitable growth through Facebook would have no choice but to accept a revenue share agreement.”
Facebook, Addiction, and the New News: “Facebook does a lot of things well, but the one thing that impresses me most is how it exposes the actions of my friends on the site.”
Myspace – the next Prodigy? “By providing a clear roadmap – and business opportunity – for the widget makers, Facebook has just increased its virtual R&D budget by over $250 million dollars. By welcoming third-party innovation, Facebook will reap the benefit of hundreds of millions of dollars of venture investment – and the Facebook user will have a much richer experience.”
Trashing Teens: “Teens in America are in touch with their peers on average 65 hours a week, compared to about four hours a week in preindustrial cultures. In this country, teens learn virtually everything they know from other teens, who are in turn highly influenced by certain aggressive industries.”
But the most significant difference I’ve noticed with Facebook from other tools is based on personal experience. I’ve never seen a tool (even in the days of yahoo mail or hotmail) that resulted in more requests from non-technical friends/family. I’ve received facebook friend requests from former employees, high school friends, family members, colleagues, etc. Google is about information. Facebook is about connections between people.